Bernie’s a fighter. He says he’s going to keep winning over superdelegates all the way to a contested convention. So here’s all he needs to do:
- Keep Hillary from getting any of the 144 undecided supers.
- Get 305 pro-Hillary supers to switch to him.
As of Sunday May 5, he had 1501 to Hillary’s 1776. But there are still 774 pledged (elected) delegates up for grabs. It’s sure Hillary will get more in Puerto Rico and DC, but Bernie may well get more in the other June 7 contestants, even though the polls still show him behind in the two big states, CA and NJ.
Let’s say the remaining delegates are split 50/50. Now if you add in those and add in the super delegates that Wikipedia says are in Hillary’s pocket, the score will be Clinton 2687 to Bernie 1934 when primary voting ends. But supers can change their minds any time.
Now this is how to figure out how Bernie can win:
To win the nomination, a candidate needs 2383, so Hillary has 304 more than she needs to win. But … if Bernie can take just 305 away from her, he wins!
There’s one more small problem. There are 144 Supers who have not made up their minds. So Bernie must (1) keep Hillary from getting any of the 144 undecided supers, and (2) get 305 pro-Hillary supers to switch to him. Of course this is beyond the 46 that are already for him.
But there’s still one more little problem. Hillary will still be ahead by about three million popular votes, so the 144 + 305 supers that now go for Bernie will all be seen as overturning the will of the voters. And they might not like to be seen that way. That would be no problem except that:
- Bernie used to say that the supers should not decide — let the voters decide.
- Robert Reich launched a petition saying the same thing.
- 170,000 Bernie supporters signed Reich’s petition.
- There are another 390,000 signatures on similar MoveOn petitions.
- Elizabeth Warren has said she does not believe in superdelegates,
- so there is speculation that, as a superdelegate, she will not want to vote against the will of the voters.
On May 1, in support of his new push to win superdelegates, Bernie explained: “at the end of the day the responsibility the superdelegates have is to decide what is best for this country and the party” (Watch him say it.)
So, this leaves us slightly confused. Does he think the party supers should overturn the will of the voters because the supers know what’s best and should decide? Or does he believe in “one person one vote,” as he used to say?